Exiting International Deals Is Not Like Backing Out of a Business Deal

President Trump has dropped out of the Paris Climate Accord (although it may not hold – more on that later), is re-negotiating NAFTA, and is threatening to dump the Iranian Nuclear Deal.  These are a problem.  On Deadline (MSNBC) on 9/22/17, Republican Representative Charlie Dent said that even on deals he doesn’t agree with, the US should not be backing out of international agreements.  His comment was that, if we back out of international deals just because the administration changes, why should anyone enter into any deal with us?  He makes a good point.

The Iranian Nuclear Deal is often referred to as if it were just between us and Iran.  It isn’t.  There is a total of seven countries including us.  The other signatories to the deal are:  United Kingdom, France, Russia, China, and Germany.  Russia and China are both somewhat allied with Iran, and the others were on the other side.  The deal was finally able to be done, because the US had managed to bring a number of other countries along on sanctions against Iran (including through the UN).  If we back out of the deal, we back out alone.  We won’t be able to get another or better deal without other countries coming along with us and re-imposing sanctions.  That is unlikely to happen.  If we are on our own in backing out and re-imposing sanctions, why would Iran want a new deal with us?  It was only the joint sanctions that brought them to the table in the first place, and the other countries have no intention of re-imposing them.  We would have no leverage to encourage, much less make, Iran make a deal with us.

Re-negotiating NAFTA will cause less of an issue than the others.  If we just back out, yes, it would be a big problem, but NAFTA has been around long enough that re-negotiating some of the items in it makes sense.  Situations, technology, etc., change over time, and it makes sense to re-visit a treaty after a number of years.  However, Trump promised transparency, and that is not happening.  I’m not sure that most people even realize that NAFTA is being re-negotiated currently. Unfortunately, from what I gather from vague comments about it, the changes are all things those against the TPP would hate, so it may not be any improvement, just another corporate power grab at the cost of the rest of us.

The Paris Climate Accord is another big issue.  One thing that may be a saving grace is that the way it was set up, it can’t be completely exited by us until four years from when Trump filed the papers (after the next presidential election).  We are now one of only two nations that are not signatories to the accord (the other being Syria – Nicaragua recently decided to sign the agreement).  Trump said that he wanted to re-negotiate the agreement, but the other countries have said they will not.  Beyond that, Trump claimed it was too restrictive and damaging to our economy, but it is a voluntary agreement.  That was part of Nicaragua’s reasons for originally not signing the agreement (they thought it didn’t go far enough).  What does it say that our President would pull us out of an agreement every other country but Syria has signed on to?  Do we really want to be lumped in with Syria on anything?

Why it matters to me and should to you to:

If we start pulling out of agreements, the United States as a nation will lose all credibility with other countries with whom we want to make agreements.  International agreements are supposed to stand and last from administration to administration.  There would be no reason for any country to enter into an agreement with the US if the next administration might simply back out of it.

These agreements matter, and we need to be able to make them  – our own personal safety, not to mention our personal financial well-being, may depend on them.  Aren’t mutual defense pacts important (the other countries of NATO weren’t even asked, they just stepped up to support us after 9-11)?  Aren’t trade agreements important (although there are things I would change about most of them, they do allow us to export a lot of our goods and allow the importation of goods at prices favorable to consumers)?

On and on – these agreements impact our lives in ways most people don’t realize.  We need to maintain the ability to make international agreements.  We are not an island onto ourselves; we need to behave like a part of the world at large, and keeping our agreements is part of that.

Alternate Facts and the New Reality

More and more I am hearing and reading about how we are divided as a country. How politically we are getting further and further apart from each other and starting more and more to see those who disagree with us as “the other.” I think something that plays a large part in this is the idea of Alternative Facts. I wish Kate McKinnon’s portrayal of Kelly Anne Conway as regretting putting Trump in the Presidency were true, but I think that, from the moment she used the phrase “Alternative Facts,” we knew the truth about how far down the rabbit hole she is. It used to be that “everyone is entitled to their own opinion, but not their own facts” (thank you to the late Daniel Patrick Moynihan), but now I worry that that is no longer true, and we are living in alternate realities from each other. Trump lies so easily and regularly and his followers believe him (or don’t care whether what he says is untrue or not). I give a lot of credit to Charlie Sykes for speaking out about what has happened to right-wing media and for admitting and apologizing for his part in it (it was an amazing segment on MSNBC when he did that). Unfortunately, he is in the minority.
Now instead of calling lies what they are, there is a segment of the country that has Alternative Facts. We need to not laugh at that phrase, but call it what it is – a lie that attempts to legitimize lies as another version of truth. Alternate Facts are LIES. Anyone who choses Alternate Facts over the truth is living in an Alternate Reality. This is incredibly dangerous. So far it seems to be mostly confined to our country, but I don’t know how long that will last. Theresa May is looking to (or has already) formed a government with an Irish party that believes in Creationism. When Scott Walker went to England, he was mocked for not being willing to say that Evolution is true.
At first I think we will become more and more isolated and irrelevant or at least untrusted by the rest of the world. Trump promised we would be tough and respected, and instead we have lost the respect of the very countries who used to look to us.
Will we become irrelevant and inconsequential on the world stage, or, even worse, lead the world down the rabbit hole? We all need to speak the truth and make sure that facts and the truth retain their meaning.
We are losing our role as a respected superpower in the world, but beyond that this country is being torn apart by an Alternate Reality ruled by Alternate Facts. I don’t think things can get better until Alternate Facts are acknowledged as lies and given up by the majority of those who currently believe in (or at least accept) them. There will always be those who choose the fringe, but the Truth needs to be the Truth and acknowledged as such (on both sides).

Why it matters to me and why it should to you too:

I’m not sure how to address this for this blog post.  It seems so obvious to me that I’ve had trouble putting it down.  It matters because there is only one reality, and we all need to live in it together.  Nothing will ever be perfect, but it can’t at least get better until lies become unacceptable again, from anyone – especially from those in power in the most powerful nation on earth.

Aside – The Pardon and the Fifth Amendment

I have heard a number of attorneys on MSNBC mention that if Trump grants pardons in the Russia investigation, those people receiving them will no longer have the right to invoke the Fifth Amendment – their right against self-incrimination.  There is also a good article by Jill Wine-Banks, former Watergate Prosecutor, here:  http://www.chicagotribune.com/news/opinion/commentary/ct-perspec-pardon-0725-jm-20170724-story.html.  If you have been pardoned, there is no longer a risk of self-incrimination.  However, while that makes sense to me, I did recently hear another attorney on MSNBC, (sorry I didn’t catch his name, and I hadn’t seen him before or since), mention that the Fifth Amendment still applies if the person is at risk of a state or local prosecution.  Now that Muller is conferring with NY State Attorney General Schneiderman, the possibility for any relevant state charges is looming large.  And Trump can’t pardon state or local crimes.

So pardon recipients might end up in contempt of court or contempt of congress if they do not testify, or subject to state or local prosecution for what they say if they do. He may not be doing them any favors. If nothing else, it’ll subject them to whopping legal fees while all this is worked out.

When will we learn that a businessperson doesn’t make a good President?

We have had three businessmen as President, and I hope we have finally learned our lesson.  The first one was Herbert Hoover.  The second was George W. Bush.  The latest is Trump.  Since Hoover oversaw the beginning of the Great Depression and George W. Bush oversaw the Great Recession,  I worry about what will happen under Trump (maybe Thomm Hartman is right – The Crash of 2016 – he did note in the book that the year is not exact, just close).

I still find it fascinating that there are some people out there who think that Trump is a great businessman and that that is what we need for President.  Trump’s businesses have had seven bankruptcies and, during the election campaign, the Trump Taj Mahal (although then owned by his friend Carl Icahn) finally closed for good.  Trump always had an excuse for his business troubles that wasn’t about him.  Now he is doing the same thing as President.  Truman is known for “the buck stops here.”  Trump seems to think that if anything doesn’t go just right that someone, or many others, are to blame, but never him.

During the election I heard someone on a news channel, (sorry I don’t remember who – I’d be happy to credit you if I could), say that Trump’s business is actually a small, family business.  If you look closely at the Trump organization, that’s true.  He has employees at the properties he owns, but they aren’t managed by him and most of the properties with his name on them aren’t even his anymore.  He has just licensed the used of his name and then just collects the checks.  Once upon a time he built buildings, but not now.  His main organization seems to be the offices in Trump Tower in New York.  That is not a massive business empire.  That is a good marketing gimmick of self-promotion.

Trump, for years apparently has/had been unable to get financing from US banks.  There are articles online citing both Donald Jr. and Eric as stating, going back to 2008 at least, that they get lots of their funding from Russia (oligarchs or banks, I don’t know – but all are reliant on the good will of Putin).

The biggest problem with Trump’s business experience translating to the White House and Presidency is something most people never even thought about.  Trump’s business is a private company.  He doesn’t have a Board of Directors, shareholders, or anyone else to answer to other than himself.  The Presidency is not an autocracy or a dictatorship, but that is the closest analogy to Trump’s business.

Why this matters to me and should to you to:

If Trump’s business experience is closer to an autocracy or dictatorship and he doesn’t read or have the attention span to learn anything much new, what have we elected?  He seems to primarily be a performer and a skilled one at that, although “The Apprentice” was never of any interest to me.  Beyond that, we may have elected someone who only knows how to be a dictator.  His reactions so far in office lead to the conclusion that he really doesn’t understand the limits of the Presidency.  We can only hope he starts to learn those limits, and quickly. It matters to us all, because America becoming a dictatorship would be a disaster – what makes this country great is that it is a democracy.